You might have heard recent comment from Mr. Buffett saying “Investing is so simple that even Monkey can do better job then Financial advisor”.
Also if you are in trading meme’s you must come across this funny meme
Or like your old uncles or dad says Trading is no better then flipping a coin . So we decided to test it.
What we need ?
Pick up one index and try doing day trading on it , we picked up QQQ ( $QQQ )
Ground rules ?
- Each position will be held for 30 mins on random time at a specific day .
- Position will be closed before EOD.
- All the position BUY or SELL are without leverage and with same amount.
Also BUY or SELL will be decided based on Flipping coin , really , like actually flipping coin. We ran that simulation for last 7 years.
and here is the Simulation run result with 100+ runs.
| Year | Average Annual Performance | Best Annual Performance | Worst Annual Performance | Draw Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1.92% | 20.38% | -10.21% | -6.65% |
| 2017 | 3.08% | 10.92% | -4.10% | -3.99% |
| 2018 | -3.56% | 21.65% | -21.08% | -12.05% |
| 2019 | 4.80% | 15.61% | -6.75% | -6.03% |
| 2020 | 6.66% | 33.63% | -17.12% | -10.69% |
| 2021 | 2.41% | 26.31% | -17.97% | -7.25% |
| 2022 | -4.21% | 3.91% | -10.00% | -5.40% |
At least it didn’t lose money 🙂
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